Local business owners and economists responded to a predicted increase in retail sales with both optimism and skepticism last week.

On Tuesday, the National Retail Federation announced that it expected retail sales would rise 2.5 percent in 2010.

Robert Carreira, director of the Cochise College Center for Economic Development, called the prediction “reasonable” for Cochise County.

“In recent months, we’ve seen signs of a rebound in retail sales, with sales up in October and November,” Carreira said. “It looks as though once figures for December are in, 2009 sales will break even with those in 2008.”

That works out to about $513.4 million in retail sales for Cochise County. An increase in line with the NRFs prediction would mean an addition of nearly $20 million for the county, “which would translate into about 320 direct, indirect and induced jobs countywide,” he said

For its prediction, the NRF looked at jobs and the housing market as its primary indicators of consumer confidence, said Kathy Grannis, media relations manager for the retail trade association.

“Employment loss has slowed and housing starts have grown, showing consumers are a little more confident in their jobs and their financial status and are spending again,” Grannis said.

Grannis went on to highlight the importance of retail sales play in the nations economy.

“Consumer spending makes up about 65 percent of the GDP, so it’s important for the retail industry to see consumers spending on houses and home improvements again,” she said.

Laura Studer of B&D Lumber said they expect an increase  in their business this year.

“I expect to see alot of people use their income tax refunds on home improvement in addition  to more investments in homes and having the first time buyers rebate extended to 2010.. You will see a lot more people fixing up their homes.”

She also believes the expanded service and products and recent changes they have made at the Douglas store will also have a positive impact on their sales for 2010.

Danny Ortega, Jr., of the Shoe Salon, hopes for the type of increases discussed but isn’t convinced.

“Two-and-a-half percent sounds high for what we have seen,” he said.

“I think Douglas is a little behind the recovery curve. We were still performing well while other parts of the nation were suffering. So I suspect our recovery will start later.

“We are hopeful but I don’t know if we can hit that mark this year.

Another merchant said they are being adversely impacted by the long lines going back into Mexico.

“Previously, Mexican clients would expect a long wait to get into the U.S. but only a few minutes to get back into Mexico. Now the waits to go back home are as long or longer than those getting into Douglas.

“We are bing told that the inspection process could take even longer..

“Without some way to push people through the port quicker, I am afraid this is going to be a tough year.”